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Planning fallacy

The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned.

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Wikipedia

Planning fallacy

The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned.

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Decision Lab Biases

Planning Fallacy

What is the Planning Fallacy? The planning fallacy describes our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task, as well as the costs and risks associated with that task—even if it contradicts our experiences. First identified by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, this bias affects individuals, teams, and organizations alike. Whether it's building a house,…

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Cognitive biasesPlanningProspect theoryThe Decision Lab

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