Gambler's fallacy
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa). The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example,…
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Gambler's fallacy
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa). The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example,…
Open de bron ↗Gambler's Fallacy
What is the Gambler’s fallacy? The gambler’s fallacy describes our belief that the probability of a random event occurring in the future is influenced by previous instances of that type of event.
Open de bron ↗Gambler’s Fallacy (Gokkersmisvatting): betekenis & voorbeelden
De Gambler’s Fallacy is een denkfout waarbij mensen verwachten dat toeval zichzelf corrigeert. Na een reeks van dezelfde uitkomsten voelt het logisch dat “het nu wel moet omslaan”, terwijl de kans in werkelijkheid exact hetzelfde blijft. Deze misvatting beperkt zich niet tot casino’s of loterijen. Ook bij zakelijke beslissingen zien we dit patroon terug: marketingcampagnes […] Read More…
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