Illusion of validity
Illusion of validity is a cognitive bias in which a person overestimates their ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analyzing a set of data, in particular when the data analyzed show a very consistent pattern—that is, when the data "tells" a coherent story. This effect persists even when the person is aware of all the factors that limit the accuracy of their predictions,…
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Illusion of validity
Illusion of validity is a cognitive bias in which a person overestimates their ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analyzing a set of data, in particular when the data analyzed show a very consistent pattern—that is, when the data "tells" a coherent story. This effect persists even when the person is aware of all the factors that limit the accuracy of their predictions,…
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What is the Illusion of Validity? The illusion of validity is a cognitive bias that describes our tendency to be overconfident in the accuracy of our judgements, specifically in our interpretations and predictions regarding a given data set.
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